Open Access

Early Warning Systems for Traffic Accidents Using Predictive Machine Learning Models

4 Professor, Department of Computer Science & Engineering, St. Andrews Institute of Technology & Management, Gurgaon, India

Abstract

Accidents in transportation sector are a major public safety concern, particularly in high-traffic urban regions where increasing vehicle density and complex road conditions contribute to frequent crashes. The capacity to deliver timely early warnings based on predictive risk analysis is severely lacking in traditional traffic management systems, which are mostly reactive. This paper presents a solution to this constraint by leveraging the US Accidents (2016-2023) dataset, which includes 2,845,342 accident records with 46 characteristics, and proposing a prediction model based on Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) to provide early warning of traffic accidents. The proposed method incorporates exploratory data analysis, data preparation, label encoding, min-max normalization, SMOTE-based class balancing, and an 80:20 training-testing split, among a number of other things. The XGBoost model uses accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score to evaluate the efficacy of its accident risk forecasting training. With an accuracy (ACC) of 95.9%, precision (PRE) of 96.0%, recall (REC) of 95.7%, and F1-score (F1) of 95.8%, the proposed model surpasses state-of-the-art machine learning (ML) methods, test results show, including FL, Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), and Support Vector Machine (SVM). According to these results, the XGBoost model is a solid and efficient way to anticipate when traffic accidents happen, which helps with IVSs by allowing for faster risk assessments and safer roads.

Keywords

References

V. K. Kukkala, J. Tunnell, S. Pasricha, and T. Bradley, “Advanced Driver-Assistance Systems: A Path Toward Autonomous Vehicles,” IEEE Consum. Electron. Mag., vol. 7, no. 5, pp. 18–25, Sep. 2018, doi: 10.1109/MCE.2018.2828440.
N. Adik, “The Rise of Open and Free Networks: A Community-Driven Paradigm for Decentralized Connectivity,” in 2025 IEEE First International Conference on Innovations in Engineering and Next-Generation Technologies for Sustainability (ICINVENTS), Coimbatore, India: IEEE, 2025, pp. 1–9, November. doi: 10.1109/ICINVENTS64613.2025.11402224.
J. Nidamanuri, C. Nibhanupudi, R. Assfalg, and H. Venkataraman, “A Progressive Review: Emerging Technologies for ADAS Driven Solutions,” IEEE Trans. Intell. Veh., vol. 7, no. 2, pp. 326–341, Jun. 2022, doi: 10.1109/TIV.2021.3122898.
P. H. Desai, P. Mahalle, and P. Chandre, “Intelligent Access Control Schemes for the Internet of Everything: A Survey of Techniques, Challenges, and Future Directions,” in Information Systems for Intelligent Systems, 2026, pp. 95–105. doi: 10.1007/978-3-032-13196-6_9.
S. Singamsetty, “AI-powered Satellite Image Processing for Global Air Traffic Surveillance Techniques Using NCNN–EGSA Optimization Techniques,” in Machine Learning Based Air Traffic Surveillance System Using Image Processing, Emerald Publishing Limited, 2026, pp. 179–197. doi: 10.1108/978-1-80592-062-520251010.
L. A. Yeruva, D. Singh, S. Suddala, N. Bhatt, and R. Uddin, “Augmented Data Management for Cache Performance, Cybersecurity, and Mobile Integration,” J. Comput. Mech. Manag., vol. 5, no. 3, pp. 280–293, May, Jun. 2026, doi: 10.57159/jcmm.5.3.26691.
S. Chatterjee, “A Data Governance Framework for Big Data Pipelines: Integrating Privacy, Security, and Quality in Multitenant Cloud Environments,” Tech. Int. J. Eng. Res., vol. 10, no. 5, 2023, doi: 10.56975/tijer.v10i5.158181.
T. Banerjee and H. Singh, “Securing Non-Human Identities in Industrial IoT a Blockchain-Based Trust Framework,” NIPES - J. Sci. Technol. Res., vol. 7, no. 4, pp. 228–246, Dec. 2025, doi: 10.37933/nipes/7.4.2025.1660.
M. Mittal, “The Role of Edge Computing in IOT: Enhancing Real-Time Data Processing Capabilities,” Int. J. Adv. Res. Electr. Electron. Instrum. Eng., vol. 06, no. 12, Dec. 2017, doi: 10.15662/IJAREEIE.2017.0612002.
S. Cheng, B.-B. Hu, H.-L. Wei, L. Li, and C. Lv, “Deep Learning-Based Hybrid Dynamic Modeling and Improved Handling Stability Assessment for Autonomous Vehicles at Driving Limits,” IEEE Trans. Veh. Technol., vol. 74, no. 4, pp. 5582–5593, Apr. 2025, doi: 10.1109/TVT.2024.3515209.
H. K. Yadav, “Design and Implement Machine Learning Based Predictive Analytics for Road Safety and Accident Prevention,” in 2026 IEEE International Conference on Interdisciplinary Approaches in Technology and Management for Social Innovation (IATMSI), Gwalior, India: IEEE, 2026, pp. 1–6, March. doi: 10.1109/IATMSI68868.2026.11465965.
J. B. Mehta, “Autonomous Security Validation For Embedded Trust Chains In Connected Devices,” Int. J. Adv. SIGNAL IMAGE Sci., vol. 11, no. 6s, pp. 802–812, Dec. 2025, doi: 10.29284/1th3da51.
S. P. Ardakani et al., “Road Car Accident Prediction Using a Machine-Learning-Enabled Data Analysis,” Sustainability, vol. 15, no. 7, Mar. 2023, doi: 10.3390/su15075939.
H. N. Dholariya, “Human-in-the-Loop AI for Cloud Data Engineering: The Collaborative Intelligence Architecture (CIRA) for Regulated Industries,” J. Inf. Syst. Eng. Manag., vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 883–898, Jan, 2026.
Y. Kotsyubynska, N. Kozan, V. Chadiuk, A. Kostyshyn, A. Kotsyubynsky, and V. Fentsyk, “Machine Learning and Deep Learning for Predicting Traffic Crash Injury Severity: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (2014-2025),” J. Road Saf., vol. 1, no. 37, Feb. 2026, doi: 10.33492/JRS-D-26-1-2721386.
S. Jabar and M. Hussain, “Machine Learning-Based Framework for Road Accident Detection and Prevention,” Nov. 2025. doi: 10.36227/techrxiv.176366388.82802425/v1.
P. Saranya, G. R, N. A, and K. G, “Road Accident Prevention System using Machine Learning,” Int. J. Innov. Sci. Res. Technol., pp. 3616–3623, Jun. 2025, doi: 10.38124/ijisrt/25 May 1803.
Y. Berhanu, D. Schröder, B. T. Wodajo, and E. Alemayehu, “Machine learning for predictions of road traffic accidents and spatial network analysis for safe routing on accident and congestion-prone road networks,” Results Eng., vol. 23, p. 102737, Sep. 2024, doi: 10.1016/j.rineng.2024.102737.
R. Alnashwan, M. Mashaabi, A. Alotaibi, H. Qudaih, and L. Albraheem, “IoT-Based Accident Prevention System using Machine Learning techniques,” in 2023 6th Artificial Intelligence and Cloud Computing Conference (AICCC), New York, NY, USA: ACM, Dec. 2023, pp. 179–188. doi: 10.1145/3639592.3639617.
A. T. Kurian and P. Kumar Soori, “AI-Based Driver Drowsiness and Distraction Detection in Real-Time,” in 2023 International Conference on Computational Intelligence and Knowledge Economy (ICCIKE), IEEE, Mar. 2023, pp. 13–18. doi: 10.1109/ICCIKE58312.2023.10131730.
C. Yang, “Car accidents prediction based on cloud computing in data analysis,” in ISCTT 2022; 7th International Conference on Information Science, Computer Technology and Transportation, 2022, pp. 1–6.
K. K. Mohd Shariff, S. Zainuddin, and M. S. Amin Megat Ali, “Detection of Wet Road Surfaces from Acoustic Signals using Scalogram and Optimized AlexNet,” in 2022 IEEE 12th Symposium on Computer Applications & Industrial Electronics (ISCAIE), IEEE, May 2022, pp. 159–163. doi: 10.1109/ISCAIE54458.2022.9794556.
Y.-F. Zhou, K. Xie, X.-Y. Zhang, C. Wen, and J.-B. He, “Efficient Traffic Accident Warning Based on Unsupervised Prediction Framework,” IEEE Access, vol. 9, pp. 69100–69113, 2021, doi: 10.1109/ACCESS.2021.3077120.
S. Moosavi, “US Accidents (2016 - 2023),” Kaggle Contributor.
A. Ghaffari, H. Nguyen, A. Saleh, L. Lovén, and E. Gilman, “Traffic Accident Prediction and Warning System: Integration Use Case,” CEUR Workshop Proc., vol. 3894, pp. 108–118, 2024.
T. Hu and T. Hu, Proceedings of the International Workshop on Advances in Deep Learning for Image Analysis and Computer Vision (IWADIC 2025), vol. 128, no. Iwadic 2025. In Advances in Computer Science Research, vol. 128. Dordrecht: Atlantis Press International BV, 2026. doi: 10.2991/978-94-6239-648-7.
M. E. Jaji, “Predictive Analytics of Road Traffic Incidents , A Machine Learning Approach Predictive Analytics of Road Traffic Incidents , A Machine Learning Approach by A Thesis Submitted in Partial Fulfilment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of,” 2024.
Z. Li, “Predicting Traffic Accident Severity During Peak Hours Using Machine Learning,” in Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Electronic Information Technology and Computer Engineering, New York, NY, USA: ACM, Jun. 2025, pp. 375–380. doi: 10.1145/3766671.3766738.

Similar Articles

1-10 of 52

You may also start an advanced similarity search for this article.