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Hybrid Neural Network Architecture for Accurate Forecasting of Crude Oil Prices in Volatile Energy Markets

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Dr. Jack Thompson ¹ , Dr. Mia Johnson ¹ ,

⁴ School of Economics University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia

⁴ Department of Data Science University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia

Abstract

Crude oil price forecasting is a complex nonlinear time-series problem influenced by macroeconomic dynamics, geopolitical instability, and speculative market behavior. Traditional statistical models often fail to capture the high volatility and non-stationarity of crude oil price movements. This study proposes a hybrid neural network architecture that integrates deep learning mechanisms with ensemble and feature transformation techniques to improve predictive accuracy in volatile energy markets. The proposed framework leverages Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, hybridized with gradient-based optimization and ensemble learning strategies, to model long-range dependencies in oil price sequences. Prior studies highlight the limitations of gradient descent-based recurrent architectures in learning long-term dependencies effectively (Bengio & P. F., 1994), motivating the adoption of improved deep learning structures.

The model is conceptually grounded in deep learning frameworks such as TensorFlow (Abadi et al., 2016) and integrates insights from support vector machines, XGBoost, and wavelet-based decomposition approaches to enhance feature representation. Comparative literature indicates that hybrid and ensemble methods outperform standalone models in financial forecasting tasks (Jammazi, 2012; Zhao et al., 2017). The proposed architecture further incorporates risk-sensitive learning considerations inspired by financial volatility studies (Wang et al., 2020).

The study demonstrates that combining sequential learning with ensemble optimization significantly improves forecasting stability under high volatility conditions. The findings contribute to the advancement of intelligent financial forecasting systems and provide a scalable framework for energy market prediction under uncertainty.

Keywords

Crude Oil Forecasting, Hybrid Neural Network, LSTM,, Deep Learning

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