Open Access

Models and Methods for Prioritizing Software Vulnerabilities Based on Business-Criticality Indicators and Probability of Exploitation

https://doi.org/10.55640/ijmcsit-v03i04-01

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Aleksandr Pinaev ¹ ,

⁴ CEO and Founder of Swordfish Security and Mobix Dubai, United Arab Emirates

Abstract

This article examines existing models and methods for vulnerability prioritization, including CVSS v3.1/v4.0, the EPSS v4 exploit prediction system, the SSVC v2 framework, as well as their integration with asset business-criticality indicators and information on real-world exploitation based on CISA’s Known Exploited Vulnerabilities Catalog (KEV). The study methodology is grounded in a systematic review of the academic literature, a content analysis of technical documentation, and a comparative assessment of methods on a representative CVE dataset. Based on the findings, a composite prioritization model proposed by the author is introduced; it combines four signals – severity, probability, KEV status, and business criticality – into a single index with configurable weighting coefficients. It is shown that the application of the Composite Vulnerability Priority Score (CVPS) reduces the volume of vulnerabilities requiring immediate response by approximately sevenfold while preserving a high level of coverage of genuinely exploited threats. The results are of practical value for vulnerability-management specialists, chief information security officers, and those responsible for patch-management policy design.

Keywords

vulnerability prioritization, CVSS, EPSS, SSVC, business criticality, vulnerability management, KEV, machine learning, cybersecurity, risk-based approach, patch management.

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Models and Methods for Prioritizing Software Vulnerabilities Based on Business-Criticality Indicators and Probability of Exploitation

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